Transmission lines at dusk over open country
An Insight Circle initiative

Flexibility the grid can trust.

FLEX-TRUST is the independent data & AI assurance layer that turns self-reported flexibility into a verified, grid-settlement-grade signal.

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NESO Ofgem DESNZ UKRI Innovate UK Elexon Smart DCC Energy Systems Catapult Digital Catapult BSI ICO UK Power Networks SSEN Northern Powergrid SP Energy Networks Electricity North West National Grid Electricity Distribution Clean Power 2030 Balancing Mechanism Capacity Market Demand Flexibility Service Market-wide Half-Hourly Settlement Data Best Practice Guidance Local Constraint Markets

The institutions, codes and markets FLEX-TRUST is built to serve.

The gap

Grid flexibility is scaling faster than the market's ability to verify it.

Aggregators and insurers have no independent way to confirm that claimed flexibility actually happened, increasing the settlement risk. Today, the party reporting it is the party being paid.

FLEX-TRUST is the independent data and AI assurance layer that closes that gap: we verify the number and publish our confidence in it.

2GW
of additional consumer-led flexibility targeted on the system by 2030
UKRI CLF Challenge
10–12GW
of demand turn-down at winter peak in NESO's analysis
Clean Power 2030 Action Plan
95%
clean generation by 2030 — the ambition all of this exists to support
Clean Power 2030 Action Plan
30min
the settlement period every flexibility claim must ultimately resolve to
GB market settlement
An operator monitoring a network control room display wall
The problem, plainly As flexibility scales, settlements still rest on data that no independent party can verify.'
FLEX-TRUSTAn Insight Circle initiative · independent AI/Data Assurance
FLEX-TRUST attestation Specimen
412 kW verified turn-down
340 kW95% confidence interval ±38 kW480 kW
NodeSubstation-level token
Window17:00 – 19:00
ComfortWithin band, all dwellings
Baseline methodPublished · open to challenge
Illustrative specimen. Not live data.
No dwelling, address or household is identifiable at any point.
The layer

The hard part was never the meter. It is the counterfactual.

Measuring consumption is solved. Estimating what consumption would have been, on a cold evening, in a specific building, with real people inside it — that is an open technical problem, and it is the number every payment depends on.

FLEX-TRUST treats that estimate the way a settlement system treats a trade: produced by an independent party, method published, and never reported without its error bar.

Method

Three steps, in this order, every time.

01 — Observe

Take the data as it really arrives

Telemetry from building controls and metering, complete with the gaps, drift and irregular intervals that real estates produce. No cleaned demo feed.

02 — Estimate

Model what would have happened

The counterfactual is estimated against building thermal behaviour and occupancy noise, then tested against withheld ground truth so the error is measured, not asserted.

03 — Attest

Publish a score you can be held to

A signed, settlement-ready figure with its confidence interval, its method version, and the comfort record for the dwellings involved. Auditable after the fact.

Who it serves

Three parties who currently take the same number on trust.

Wooden letter tiles spelling the word data
Aggregators & flexibility providers

Evidence instead of assertion

You carry the baseline risk today. An independent attestation is something you can put in front of a counterparty, an auditor or a network without asking them to take your word for it. Reduced settlement risk.

A hand operating an illuminated control panel
Social landlords, building owners & amp; asset managers

Comfort proven, not promised

Before a resident's heating is paused, someone should be able to demonstrate that the home stayed warm. Comfort is verified as a first-class output, on equal footing with the kilowatts.

Wind turbines across an open landscape
Networks, system operator & regulators

Flexibility you can plan around

Distributed turn-down only substitutes for reinforcement or generation if its delivery is measurable at the node with a known error. Aggregated to substation level, never to the household.

Why this matters

A published standard and a commercial service, kept structurally separate.

The public interest case

The UK needs households and buildings to deliver real flexibility.

That only works if the numbers can be trusted.

Most flexibility claims today are self-reported by the same systems that create them.

When settlements, grid security or policy targets depend on those numbers, counterparties and the system operator are left taking them on trust.

The result is slower participation and less flexible capacity than the system requires.

FLEX-TRUST closes that gap. It measures whether the turn-down happened, states the confidence in that measurement, and produces a score the market can actually use.

For the energy system: a clearer, more bankable signal.

For housing providers and residents: flexibility that respects value, comfort, and privacy.
For government: a practical contribution to the 2 GW consumer-led flexibility target, built on verification rather than assertion.

The method is inspectable. The service that runs it stays independent of any single optimiser or asset owner. That separation is intentional.

We are proving the approach through the current research programme. Once demonstrated, the operational service can be sustained commercially while the verification claim itself remains independent.

The commercial case

Publishing a method is not the same as giving away a service. Running verification at national scale takes calibration data, operational rigour and a party whose independence counterparties will actually accept — none of which arrive for free.

The software that runs the standard is commercially owned and licensed. Licence revenue funds the standard's operation once the research programme concludes, and keeps the verifying party structurally independent of the assets and platforms it assesses.

We are talking to partners and long-term capital about that second half. It is a conversation about structure and independence first, and terms second.

How it is funded

A standard has to be paid for by someone. We are specific about who, and why.

Who pays for verification

Once flexibility is relied upon for network planning, settlement or investment decisions, the party carrying that reliance has a direct interest in independent verification of the figures behind it:

Networks and the system operator — verified turn-down at a constrained node supports planning decisions that would otherwise rest on a provider's own reporting.

Aggregators and flexibility providers — an independent attestation is evidence they can put in front of a counterparty, funder or auditor, rather than a figure they alone stand behind.

Lenders and insurers — underwriting or lending against flexibility revenue requires a measurement of delivery risk that was not produced by the party being financed.

Asset owners and social landlords — where flexibility revenue is shared with a landlord or resident, an independent figure gives that party something to check the calculation against.

Why this differs from paying for a service you also mark

Independent verification only holds its value if payment for it is structured so it cannot be read as payment for a result. We work to principles used in other assurance markets — audit, calibration, technical due diligence:

Published, fixed fee schedules — no fee is contingent on the outcome of an attestation.

No commercial advisory sold to a party we are attesting — the verification relationship and the advisory relationship do not sit with the same client at the same time.

Disclosed method and disclosed performance — the baseline methodology is published, and our own accuracy record is available for scrutiny, not only the scores we issue.

Public research funding

A proud participant in the UKRI grants scheme.

FLEX-TRUST is being taken forward as an application to the UKRI Consumer Led Flexibility challenge, part of the Clean Energy Superpower Mission within the R&D Missions Accelerator Programme — the national programme working to unlock at least 2GW of additional consumer-led flexibility by 2030.

Programme Clean Energy Superpower Mission
Challenge Consumer Led Flexibility
Strand Software first
Status Application Active
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Start here

Two conversations we are having right now.

We're looking for strategic parners to help us scale Flex-Trust. Interested in shaping the future of flexibility markets? Schedule a call at: flextrust@insightcircle.co.uk

Flex-Trust Trial→ For aggregators and networks. Thirty minutes on the value of verified flexibility settlements.
Strategic partnership For strategic partners and capital investors who see the long-term value in trusted flexibility data.